Jared Dudley
SF, Boston College · 2007 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #22 (CHA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #25 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#22). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.0 years old on draft night (born 1985-07-10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Boston College.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 904 games over 14 NBA seasons (~79% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 14 |
| Games | 904 |
| Minutes / game | 22.3 |
| Points / game | 7.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.2 |
| Assists / game | 1.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 43.0 |
| VORP | 11.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.2 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 219 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.0 |
| Born | San Diego, CA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #25 overall (#8 SF) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 19 | Javaris Crittenton | redraft #40 |
| 20 | Jason Smith | redraft #24 |
| 21 | Daequan Cook | redraft #29 |
| 23 | Wilson Chandler | redraft #15 |
| 24 | Rudy Fernández | redraft #20 |
| 25 | Morris Almond | redraft #48 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.