Evan Mobley
C, USC · 2021 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #3 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.0 years old on draft night (born 2001-06-18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at USC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 338 games over 6 NBA seasons (~69% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 338 |
| Minutes / game | 32.4 |
| Points / game | 16.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 9.0 |
| Assists / game | 3.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 35.4 |
| VORP | 12.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 2.4 |
| 2026-27 so far | 2 GP, 19 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 215 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.0 |
| Born | 2001-06-18 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#1 C) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 1 | Cade Cunningham | redraft #6 |
| 2 | Jalen Green | redraft #18 |
| 4 | Scottie Barnes | redraft #3 |
| 5 | Jalen Suggs | redraft #20 |
| 6 | Josh Giddey | redraft #7 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.