Džanan Musa
SF · 2018 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #29 (BRK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 49 games over 2 NBA seasons (~30% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #18 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #29: teams let him slide 11 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.1 years old on draft night (born 1999-05-08).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 8" at 6' 9" tall (-1.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.2% of the time (73 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 49 |
| Minutes / game | 10.7 |
| Points / game | 4.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.9 |
| Assists / game | 0.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.0 |
| VORP | -0.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.6 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Length Under +2 in. | 56.2% n=73 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 195 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 8" |
| Age on draft night | 19.1 |
| Born | 1999-05-08 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #18 overall (#6 SF) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 26 | Landry Shamet | redraft #26 |
| 27 | Robert Williams | redraft #11 |
| 28 | Jacob Evans | redraft #57 |
| 30 | Omari Spellman | redraft #37 |
| 31 | Elie Okobo | redraft #43 |
| 32 | Jevon Carter | redraft #30 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.