Chris Duarte
SG, Oregon · 2021 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #13 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 177 games over 4 NBA seasons (~54% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #19 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#13).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24.0 years old on draft night (born 1997-06-13).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Oregon.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 177 |
| Minutes / game | 18.3 |
| Points / game | 7.6 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.6 |
| Assists / game | 1.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 1.9 |
| VORP | -0.8 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -3.0 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 190 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 24.0 |
| Born | 1997-06-13 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #19 overall (#8 SG) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 10 | Ziaire Williams | redraft #29 |
| 11 | James Bouknight | redraft #55 |
| 12 | Joshua Primo | redraft #53 |
| 14 | Moses Moody | redraft #21 |
| 15 | Corey Kispert | redraft #25 |
| 16 | Alperen Şengün | redraft #2 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.