Chet Holmgren

PF, Gonzaga · 2022 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #2 (OKC)

Drafted#2OKC · 2022
Redraft rank (live)#3of 58 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #2~#102000–2021 median
Verdict (early)Beat his slot · +7spots vs. typical

Why he was overlooked Patterns

Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.

The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.

  • Pre-draft rankings

    ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#2).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Age

    20.2 years old on draft night (born 2002-05-01).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Path to the draft

    Played college basketball at Gonzaga.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    PF (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Availability

    Played 188 games over 4 NBA seasons (~57% of a full 82-game schedule each year).

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.

Career numberslive

Seasons4
Games188
Minutes / game28.9
Points / game16.4
Rebounds / game8.3
Assists / game2.1
Win Shares (career)21.8
VORP7.6
Box Plus/Minus3.5
2026-27 so far3 GP, 12 PPG (ESPN)

Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.

The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

11151530304545Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Paolo Banchero: pick 1 → redraft 4Jabari Smith Jr.: pick 3 → redraft 8Keegan Murray: pick 4 → redraft 13Jaden Ivey: pick 5 → redraft 31Bennedict Mathurin: pick 6 → redraft 19Shaedon Sharpe: pick 7 → redraft 25Dyson Daniels: pick 8 → redraft 6Jeremy Sochan: pick 9 → redraft 27Johnny Davis: pick 10 → redraft 52Ousmane Dieng: pick 11 → redraft 35Jalen Williams: pick 12 → redraft 2Jalen Duren: pick 13 → redraft 1Ochai Agbaji: pick 14 → redraft 26Mark Williams: pick 15 → redraft 7AJ Griffin: pick 16 → redraft 34Tari Eason: pick 17 → redraft 11Dalen Terry: pick 18 → redraft 30Jake LaRavia: pick 19 → redraft 14Malaki Branham: pick 20 → redraft 46Christian Braun: pick 21 → redraft 10Walker Kessler: pick 22 → redraft 5David Roddy: pick 23 → redraft 36MarJon Beauchamp: pick 24 → redraft 37Blake Wesley: pick 25 → redraft 50Wendell Moore Jr.: pick 26 → redraft 39Nikola Jović: pick 27 → redraft 22Patrick Baldwin Jr.: pick 28 → redraft 40TyTy Washington Jr.: pick 29 → redraft 51Peyton Watson: pick 30 → redraft 18Andrew Nembhard: pick 31 → redraft 16Caleb Houstan: pick 32 → redraft 29Christian Koloko: pick 33 → redraft 32Jaylin Williams: pick 34 → redraft 9Max Christie: pick 35 → redraft 23Gabriele Procida: pick 36 → redraft 53Jaden Hardy: pick 37 → redraft 43Kennedy Chandler: pick 38 → redraft 44Khalifa Diop: pick 39 → redraft 54Bryce McGowens: pick 40 → redraft 33E.J. Liddell: pick 41 → redraft 42Trevor Keels: pick 42 → redraft 49Moussa Diabaté: pick 43 → redraft 12Ryan Rollins: pick 44 → redraft 15Josh Minott: pick 45 → redraft 17Ismael Kamagate: pick 46 → redraft 55Vince Williams Jr.: pick 47 → redraft 28Kendall Brown: pick 48 → redraft 47Isaiah Mobley: pick 49 → redraft 45Matteo Spagnolo: pick 50 → redraft 56Tyrese Martin: pick 51 → redraft 38Karlo Matković: pick 52 → redraft 24JD Davison: pick 53 → redraft 41Yannick Nzosa: pick 54 → redraft 57Gui Santos: pick 55 → redraft 20Luke Travers: pick 56 → redraft 48Jabari Walker: pick 57 → redraft 21Hugo Besson: pick 58 → redraft 58

Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Pre-draft rankings
Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank		51.8%
n=765
Age
20		50.4%
n=246
Path to the draft
US college		53.2%
n=1,015
Position
Forward		51.2%
n=570

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight7' 0", 195 lbs
Age on draft night20.2
Born2002-05-01
ESPN pre-draft rank#1 overall (#1 PF)

Picked around him 2022 redraft

1Paolo Bancheroredraft #4
3Jabari Smith Jr.redraft #8
4Keegan Murrayredraft #13
5Jaden Iveyredraft #31

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.