Andrea Bargnani
PF · 2006 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #1 (TOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: path to the draft. Details below.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Italy.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#1).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.7 years old on draft night (born 1985-10-26).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 550 games over 10 NBA seasons (~67% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 550 |
| Minutes / game | 28.7 |
| Points / game | 14.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.6 |
| Assists / game | 1.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | 18.9 |
| VORP | 1.5 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.6 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 1", 248 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.7 |
| Born | Italy |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#3 PF) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 2 | LaMarcus Aldridge | redraft #2 |
| 3 | Adam Morrison | redraft #47 |
| 4 | Tyrus Thomas | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.