Amari Bailey
PG, UCLA · 2023 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #41 (CHO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 10 games over 1 NBA season (~12% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #43 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#41).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.4 years old on draft night (born 2004-02-17).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UCLA.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 1 |
| Games | 10 |
| Minutes / game | 6.5 |
| Points / game | 2.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.9 |
| Assists / game | 0.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.1 |
| VORP | -0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -8.3 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 180 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.4 |
| Born | 2004-02-17 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #43 overall (#8 PG) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 38 | Jordan Walsh | redraft #13 |
| 39 | Mouhamed Gueye | redraft #14 |
| 40 | Maxwell Lewis | redraft #51 |
| 42 | Tristan Vukcevic | redraft #29 |
| 43 | Rayan Rupert | redraft #42 |
| 44 | Sidy Cissoko | redraft #36 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.