Ace Bailey
G, Rutgers University · 2025 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #5 (UTA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 77 games over 2 NBA seasons (~47% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#5).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
18.9 years old on draft night (born 2006-08-13).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Rutgers University.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 77 |
| Minutes / game | 27.5 |
| Points / game | 13.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.2 |
| Assists / game | 1.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.2 |
| VORP | -1.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.4 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 11.7 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7.5", 203 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 18.9 |
| Born | 2006-08-13 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#2 G) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 2 | Dylan Harper | redraft #4 |
| 3 | VJ Edgecombe | redraft #5 |
| 4 | Kon Knueppel | redraft #1 |
| 6 | Tre Johnson | redraft #50 |
| 7 | Jeremiah Fears | redraft #31 |
| 8 | Egor Dëmin | redraft #18 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.